Saturday, May 21, 2011

The NFL's Quarterback Future: Part 2

Quarterback Class of 2011 (a lot more speculation on my part will be taking place in this post... you have been warned)

Cam Newton (1st overall, Carolina) - First pick of the draft, and finally legally getting paid, Cam Newton has basically unlimited amounts of athleticism and intangibles. Sure, his size will make him harder to bring down, but these aren't some sophomores from Mississippi State trying to take you down, this is Troy Polamalu, Ray Lewis, and Patrick Willis beating the ever living crap out of you and physically attempting to rip off your head. So I don't buy into the whole, "Newton's size will be a huge advantage" train of thought. He didn't learn a complex system in college so we have no idea if he'll be able to do that. He has a strong arm, but it wasn't too impressive at the combine. He has a lot of baggage. Call me stupid, but this looks a lot more like Akili Smith than it does Donovan McNabb. Not really a big believer or fan of Cam Newton.

Jake Locker (8th overall, Tennessee) - I am, however, a fan of Jake Locker. I'm not saying he's going to be really good, but I think he could be a solid NFL quarterback. With the train wreck that is Vince Young beginning to be cleared off the tracks in Nashville, the Titans needed someone to help them look towards the future. Locker is known for his toughness and surprising athleticism. He has running capabilities but needs to work on his accuracy and consistency when throwing the football. A best case scenario for him is if he gets eased into the system, becomes best friends with any play that involves him tossing the ball on outside runs to Chris Johnson, and doesn't have to start right away (enter our favorite player RUSTY SMITH!!!!!!!!!!). Locker could be solid. I would suggest keeping him on your radar for a while because the development might be more gradual here than with say Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger.

Blaine Gabbert (10th overall, Jacksonville) - Is it weird that I am now writing a blog post involving a kid I went to high school and (with the help of two others) led a student section in chanting his name while referencing Inspector Gadget during football games? Geez, life is surreal sometimes. Anyways, Gabbert has great NFL size, good speed for evading pocket pressure, and a very strong arm. People question his abilities because he played in a system where snapping from under center outside of the red zone was as common as Pirates playoff appearances. I may qualify as one of those people. I think Gabbert could be a good NFL quarterback. But I hesitate to say he could be a great NFL quarterback. Luckily, my opinion on the matter means nothing so if he really knows the game as well as the articles I've read suggest, he could become a very successful player in the league. Hopefully, Jacksonville finds the perfect medium between preparing Gabbert while not forcing Gerrard out too quickly. Jaguar fans might, however, prematurely call for Gabbert to start taking the reigns of the offense. And while he is the Jaguars future, it may be best to let him learn everything he can about the offense and watch Gerrard play for a while. Gerrard is a veteran quarterback with some playoff experience and might be able, if he is a true team player, to become a good mentor for rookie. This might optimize Blaine's success.

Christian Ponder (12th overall, Minnesota) - My mouth dropped in shock when I saw this draft pick as I was watching the draft on TV. Minnesota is probably the team I know the second most about because of my time spent in the North Star State so I knew they needed a quarterback like Walken needed more cowbell. But Ponder? At 12th overall? Since I scoured tons and tons of mock drafts and projections (3) and spent hours researching the draft (.25) I was shocked he had gone so high. I had seen him in college. Solid quarterback, seemed to know what he was doing, seemed like a gamer. But the Vikings really pulled one over on me (and their fan base, as comment boards erupting across the Land of 10,000 Lakes). I'm hesitant to really say anything either way on Ponder because I think he could be pretty good but he could also fail. It will help that he's handing off to Adrian Peterson but he also needs some targets to throw to. The Gopher State is filled with worry over this pick, though some people I know are also hopeful. (Notice: For some reason, there are 3 officially recognized nicknames of Minnesota and I used them all. The question is how the heck did they end up with 3? They couldn't just pick one? Kind of tacky if you ask me.)

Andy Dalton (35th overall, Cincinnati) - Perennial winner at TCU and very intelligent quarterback, Andy Dalton gets thrown into the circus that is the Bengals franchise. I think Cincy is going to use Dalton as the heir to the throne that was so unhappily occupied by Carson Palmer. (Though, with Owens and Ochocinco, this offense might have drawn any veteran quarterback nuts. I mean, The T.Ocho Show? Really guys? The epitome of class for sure.) Dalton is fully capable of running an offense as he showed at TCU, but it definitely didn't qualify as pro-style, which may fuel the fire for his many critics. I think, if correctly given gradual responsibility, Dalton could become a solid NFL quarterback along the lines of Ponder and Locker. I don't really think he'll ever succeed at the same level he did at TCU but I think his future could be an interesting one to watch unfold.

Colin Kaepernick (36th overall, San Francisco) - I saw this kid play a few times in college and his athleticism is intriguing. I'm not sold on his arm even though he had several records for total yards from a quarterback over his illustrious career at Nevada. I'm not quite sure if San Fran thinks he is a long term solution at quarterback because their whole situation is really puzzling to outsiders right now. Are they going to go forward with Alex Smith? Troy Smith? Kaepernick is already 23 so if he can display wisdom equivalent to his years, he might gain access to the weapons of the 49ers offense. Its unfortunate they have so much uncertainty at the position because I would personally love throwing to Michael Crabtree, Ted Ginn, and Vernon Davis while handing it off to Frank Gore. Add Kaepernick's running abilities into the fold and that offense could cause a lot of misdirection and wreak havoc on unsuspecting NFC West defenses.

Ryan Mallett (74th overall, New England) - Did the Patriots do it again? Steal a franchise changer late in the draft? We'll probably have to wait longer than we did with Tom Brady because he isn't giving up the reigns on his dying dynasty just yet. However, a lot of NFL pundits are on the Mallett bandwagon, which includes a cannon arm, massive frame, and plenty of recreational drug use. While he may be, "smokin' dubbies with his brothers," (a la Michael Scott) he could still prove to be a very capable NFL quarterback. I'm sure he's thrilled to be working under Wild Bill and Tom Brady. If he's patient, learns the system, listens to everything Brady has to say about football (along with hints on getting a model to marry you), and develops his talents, he could go down as the steal of the draft and become a great NFL quarterback. But there are a lot of variables in this equation that are yet to be determined, so we'll have to wait and see.

Ricky Stanzi (135th overall, Kansas City) - I've seen a lot of Stanzi games. He was often extremely agitating to watch for Hawkeye fans but he did find a way to win games. And though he lacked touchdowns in 2010, he was one of the most efficient passers in the country. Obviously, KC is looking for a backup as Matt Cassel seems to have a strong hold on the starting job for the foreseeable future. I think this is a good role for Stanzi to take, especially since the competition is quite thin (Brodie Croyle and Tyler Palko(?)). If he can gain some confidence, learn the playbook, and do the little things, he will be prepared for success if injuries should befall Cassel. I think Stanzi could be a sufficient NFL backup for just about any franchise.

T.J. Yates (152nd overall, Houston) - I've seen Yates play before but I don't know too much about his specific abilities. I feel like his name screams old southern money or is that just me? Looking up his place of birth confirms this (Marietta, Georgia) suspicion. He holds multiple passing records at North Carolina but does that really say much about him? I can't name another quarterback from North Carolina. Anyways, from what I remember he's a decent athlete with some mobility. His arm is solid and he has good size for a quarterback. Most of his skills scream NFL mediocrity to me though. Drafted in a situation similar to Stanzi's, the Texans are just looking for a backup for Matt "I rack up a lot of passing yards but I'm not all that impressive because I get to throw to Andre Johnson" Schaub. I don't foresee Yates being a long term NFL starter.

Nathan Enderle (160th overall, Chicago) - I've seen a few plays of Idaho-run offense with Enderle under center (thank you Boise for making me watch a few WAC games). He threw for over 3,000 yards last year but again, that was in a weak WAC conference. Chicago is looking for backup solutions, though since Jay Cutler is a wuss, a backup in Chicago might be much more likely to play then say a backup in Indianapolis. I foresee a future where we are talking about Nathan Enderle and saying, "How the heck did this guy from Idaho drafted 160th overall get 5 starts his rookie season?!?!" I mean when the other backups on your roster are guys from Idaho State (Matt Gutierrez, they can be potato buddies!!!!!) and Colorado State (Caleb Haine, who somehow saw action in the NFC Championship. Seriously you cannot make this stuff up.), and a 17 year NFL veteran (a Todd Collins who may bare a slight resemblance to the Crypt Keeper) you actually might have a chance to win the backup job. Have we ever seen a team with three backups who are from the Mountain West, WAC, and Big Sky (a I-AA conference in football)? For a team who's quarterback goes down with a broken nail, they certainly don't have much security on the bench do they?

Tyrod Taylor (180th overall, Baltimore) - This is one of the most interesting draft contrasts I've seen in recent years. Taylor is an explosive athlete and not your average run-of-the-mill conservative pocket passer that the Ravens have employed in recent years. Baltimore has been a run-first team for a long time. And that won't change anytime soon with Harbaugh at the helm. So Taylor finds himself in an interesting situation. Maybe the Ravens will utilize him in a Brad Smith type role and open their playbook for the first time since the franchise moved to Baltimore? Who knows but personally I'm very interested to see what happens. I think Taylor could be solid in the NFL if used correctly. He has a lot of experience and has shown a lot of football intelligence. Personally, I'm looking forward to watching this situation develop.

Greg McElroy (208th overall, New York Jets) -Probably one of the smartest quarterbacks to come out of the draft in the long time, McElroy has proven himself a winner with a BCS Championship to his name. He knows how to lead an offense by avoiding big mistakes and properly utilizing the talent around him to his advantage. While you might say it was easy for him to win with the likes of Ingram and Richardson in the backfield, he played in college football's best conference with a lot of poise and success. I think he's similar to the quarterback he'll be backing up, Mark Sanchez. No cannon arm, but decent mobility and a bit of grit about him that might make him a valuable backup. He got drafted into the perfect franchise for his abilities and type of play.

Though we don't have any kind of sample size of professional experience for this draft class, I think it might be a bit deeper than 2010's. I think Newton, Ponder, Dalton, Gabbert, and Locker could all have some success in the NFL as starters. Whereas last year's class might have the best quarterback out of the two in Bradford, it struggled to produce multiple long-term starting options for NFL teams. We'll get more specific in Part 3.