The NFL's Quarterback Future: Part 3

As I stated earlier, the third part of our look at the QB Draft Classes of 2010 and 2011 will be composed of a ranking according to who I think will have the best CAREER as an NFL Quarterback. Besides the obvious component of talent, I'm considering the situation they find themselves in with their current team because that can often dictate the beginning of a quarterback's career, which in turn can significantly effect the overall path of the player's journey.

Keep in mind that there has really only been a small sample size of experience for the 2010 Draft Class and zero experience for the 2011 Class. Also factor in the 2011 Class could be significantly impacted by the lockout and the influence it has on them could effect the rest of their careers.

1. Sam Bradford (Rams, 2010) - Bradford immediately vindicated himself and the hype surrounding him by taking a 1-15 team to 7-9 with little help from a battered, scrappy receiving core. His accuracy is unreal for someone as young as he is, he is generally a great decision maker, and has the perfect balance between feeling the pocket and being able to throw on the run. People are talking up the possibility of a Hall of Fame career and, for once, I'm not doubting them anymore.

2. Jake Locker (Titans, 2011) - I'm going out on a limb here but I think that Locker has inherited a pretty favorable situation in which to start his career, get used to the speed and size of the NFL and take that knowledge and use it to become a very good starting quarterback. While some question his accuracy, his college numbers may have been effected by the multiple injuries he sustained trying to single-handedly carry a pretty weak Washington squad. If Chris Johnson sticks around, the Titans defense is its usual solid self, and the new coaching regime can tutor Locker, I think he becomes a very good NFL quarterback.

3. Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars, 2011) - I originally doubted Gabbert's ability to be a successful passer in an NFL scheme but I am beginning to be convinced that he has the talent and the mental abilities to become a good, if not great, NFL QB. His size is extremely favorable. His arm is cannon-like. And he knows how to win games (like '06 Homecoming versus the hated Parkway Central Colts). I foresee Gabbert waiting a few years to start, unless the coaching staff believes in trail-by-fire and David Gerrard begins to play really poorly. If he gets to learn the NFL game and doesn't have to see continual action right away, it could be a huge advantage in the long run.

4. Ryan Mallett (Patriots, 2011) - Even though I hate them, I have to give respect to the Patriots. They are a well-run franchise that knows how to draft players, develop them properly, and make the most of what they are given. This, along with Mallett's size and arm strength, are the reason I have put him so high on this list. Obviously, he's going to have to wait his turn to start, as HOFer Tom Brady begins to wind down his career. But, once again, this could be incredibly advantageous. With the tutelage of Tom Brady, the genius of Belichick, and the solid Pats D, Mallett could find himself in an enviable situation when he is finally given the reigns of this team.

5. Cam Newton (Panthers, 2011) - Personally, I don't have much faith in the kind of college quarterback Cam Newton was transferring to extreme success in the NFL. While he is a freak athlete, that doesn't always make you a great quarterback. He's no Micheal Vick with his speed and he's no Josh Freeman with his arm. Plus, the Panthers have a lot of question marks on their roster and their offense was pretty atrocious last year. The situation isn't the best for the former Heisman winner and I don't see his style of play keeping him in the league too long either. Yet, the two classes are so weak overall that I could still see him being the 5th most successful. Yikes.

6. Andy Dalton (Bengals, 2011) - I wavered back and forth with Dalton. I wasn't sure if he had enough arm strength to be an NFL quarterback. But I think he will get some time on the bench to hone his skills before he truly has to step up and bring it. He is a very intelligent quarterback with enough mobility to avoid the quick NFL pass rush. Though the Bengals might have some receiving problems soon which might not bode well for a young quarterback. Since it seems Palmer is staying put for now, Dalton may have time to learn enough to be successful when he actually sees the field.

7. Colt McCoy (Browns, 2010) - Colt got 1st year experience behind center and had a few bright spots for a Cleveland team that some people think might be turning a corner. Handing off to Peyton Hillis is going to help out McCoy by taking pressure of him to make throws on first down. I see McCoy possibly becoming the next Drew Brees. Undersized and no one really thinking he can make it in the NFL but going out there and doing it anyway. The reason I have him 7th is because he plays for a cursed franchise. Or, to be more accurate, a cursed city.

8. Christian Ponder (Vikings, 2011) - I see Ponder as very similar to Locker. Good athletes with questionable accuracy who can both hand off to good running backs. However, the Vikings roster is on its way to having a lot of gaping holes which will not aid the development of a young quarterback. Also, it is almost certain that whenever this season gets underway, Ponder will be under center. Unless the Vikes protect their first round pick by starting Patrick Ramsey, Joe Webb, or Tavaris Jackson for a while. But the fans can probably only take so much of the misery of watching any of those three. When Ponder does start, he has two solid backs in the back field in Petersen and Gerhart, which may help in becoming comfortable on an NFL field.

9. Tim Tebow (Broncos, 2010) - While his future is still completely up in the air and no one knows who's going to be start for the Broncos when we have football again, I think Tebow will still find a decent amount of success in the NFL, whether it be as a gadget player or a full-time quarterback. While his arm and release get questioned delay, he still finds ways to be successful. In the three games he starting in 2010, his accuracy was pretty bad, but it was his first year. Not everyone can be Sam Bradford. The first year experience he gained will help him in the future whether it be with the Broncos or another franchise.

10. Colin Kaepernick (49ers, 2011) - I make this pick solely because I believe that if Kaepernick doesn't make it as a quarterback, he could become the next Brad Smith in the NFL. While that requires finding the right team who appreciates his skill set, it may not be his final destiny. There are a lot of weapons to be utilized on the 49ers offense and if he can wrestle the job away from the mediocre group of quarterbacks on their roster, he might become quite successful. Honestly, he might be the most capable of having immediate success in the league (out of the 2011 Class) because of the strong players at skill positions for San Fran and the weakiocre (yes, a mix of the words weak and mediocre) NFC West.

The NFL's Quarterback Future: Part 2

Quarterback Class of 2011 (a lot more speculation on my part will be taking place in this post... you have been warned)

Cam Newton (1st overall, Carolina) - First pick of the draft, and finally legally getting paid, Cam Newton has basically unlimited amounts of athleticism and intangibles. Sure, his size will make him harder to bring down, but these aren't some sophomores from Mississippi State trying to take you down, this is Troy Polamalu, Ray Lewis, and Patrick Willis beating the ever living crap out of you and physically attempting to rip off your head. So I don't buy into the whole, "Newton's size will be a huge advantage" train of thought. He didn't learn a complex system in college so we have no idea if he'll be able to do that. He has a strong arm, but it wasn't too impressive at the combine. He has a lot of baggage. Call me stupid, but this looks a lot more like Akili Smith than it does Donovan McNabb. Not really a big believer or fan of Cam Newton.

Jake Locker (8th overall, Tennessee) - I am, however, a fan of Jake Locker. I'm not saying he's going to be really good, but I think he could be a solid NFL quarterback. With the train wreck that is Vince Young beginning to be cleared off the tracks in Nashville, the Titans needed someone to help them look towards the future. Locker is known for his toughness and surprising athleticism. He has running capabilities but needs to work on his accuracy and consistency when throwing the football. A best case scenario for him is if he gets eased into the system, becomes best friends with any play that involves him tossing the ball on outside runs to Chris Johnson, and doesn't have to start right away (enter our favorite player RUSTY SMITH!!!!!!!!!!). Locker could be solid. I would suggest keeping him on your radar for a while because the development might be more gradual here than with say Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger.

Blaine Gabbert (10th overall, Jacksonville) - Is it weird that I am now writing a blog post involving a kid I went to high school and (with the help of two others) led a student section in chanting his name while referencing Inspector Gadget during football games? Geez, life is surreal sometimes. Anyways, Gabbert has great NFL size, good speed for evading pocket pressure, and a very strong arm. People question his abilities because he played in a system where snapping from under center outside of the red zone was as common as Pirates playoff appearances. I may qualify as one of those people. I think Gabbert could be a good NFL quarterback. But I hesitate to say he could be a great NFL quarterback. Luckily, my opinion on the matter means nothing so if he really knows the game as well as the articles I've read suggest, he could become a very successful player in the league. Hopefully, Jacksonville finds the perfect medium between preparing Gabbert while not forcing Gerrard out too quickly. Jaguar fans might, however, prematurely call for Gabbert to start taking the reigns of the offense. And while he is the Jaguars future, it may be best to let him learn everything he can about the offense and watch Gerrard play for a while. Gerrard is a veteran quarterback with some playoff experience and might be able, if he is a true team player, to become a good mentor for rookie. This might optimize Blaine's success.

Christian Ponder (12th overall, Minnesota) - My mouth dropped in shock when I saw this draft pick as I was watching the draft on TV. Minnesota is probably the team I know the second most about because of my time spent in the North Star State so I knew they needed a quarterback like Walken needed more cowbell. But Ponder? At 12th overall? Since I scoured tons and tons of mock drafts and projections (3) and spent hours researching the draft (.25) I was shocked he had gone so high. I had seen him in college. Solid quarterback, seemed to know what he was doing, seemed like a gamer. But the Vikings really pulled one over on me (and their fan base, as comment boards erupting across the Land of 10,000 Lakes). I'm hesitant to really say anything either way on Ponder because I think he could be pretty good but he could also fail. It will help that he's handing off to Adrian Peterson but he also needs some targets to throw to. The Gopher State is filled with worry over this pick, though some people I know are also hopeful. (Notice: For some reason, there are 3 officially recognized nicknames of Minnesota and I used them all. The question is how the heck did they end up with 3? They couldn't just pick one? Kind of tacky if you ask me.)

Andy Dalton (35th overall, Cincinnati) - Perennial winner at TCU and very intelligent quarterback, Andy Dalton gets thrown into the circus that is the Bengals franchise. I think Cincy is going to use Dalton as the heir to the throne that was so unhappily occupied by Carson Palmer. (Though, with Owens and Ochocinco, this offense might have drawn any veteran quarterback nuts. I mean, The T.Ocho Show? Really guys? The epitome of class for sure.) Dalton is fully capable of running an offense as he showed at TCU, but it definitely didn't qualify as pro-style, which may fuel the fire for his many critics. I think, if correctly given gradual responsibility, Dalton could become a solid NFL quarterback along the lines of Ponder and Locker. I don't really think he'll ever succeed at the same level he did at TCU but I think his future could be an interesting one to watch unfold.

Colin Kaepernick (36th overall, San Francisco) - I saw this kid play a few times in college and his athleticism is intriguing. I'm not sold on his arm even though he had several records for total yards from a quarterback over his illustrious career at Nevada. I'm not quite sure if San Fran thinks he is a long term solution at quarterback because their whole situation is really puzzling to outsiders right now. Are they going to go forward with Alex Smith? Troy Smith? Kaepernick is already 23 so if he can display wisdom equivalent to his years, he might gain access to the weapons of the 49ers offense. Its unfortunate they have so much uncertainty at the position because I would personally love throwing to Michael Crabtree, Ted Ginn, and Vernon Davis while handing it off to Frank Gore. Add Kaepernick's running abilities into the fold and that offense could cause a lot of misdirection and wreak havoc on unsuspecting NFC West defenses.

Ryan Mallett (74th overall, New England) - Did the Patriots do it again? Steal a franchise changer late in the draft? We'll probably have to wait longer than we did with Tom Brady because he isn't giving up the reigns on his dying dynasty just yet. However, a lot of NFL pundits are on the Mallett bandwagon, which includes a cannon arm, massive frame, and plenty of recreational drug use. While he may be, "smokin' dubbies with his brothers," (a la Michael Scott) he could still prove to be a very capable NFL quarterback. I'm sure he's thrilled to be working under Wild Bill and Tom Brady. If he's patient, learns the system, listens to everything Brady has to say about football (along with hints on getting a model to marry you), and develops his talents, he could go down as the steal of the draft and become a great NFL quarterback. But there are a lot of variables in this equation that are yet to be determined, so we'll have to wait and see.

Ricky Stanzi (135th overall, Kansas City) - I've seen a lot of Stanzi games. He was often extremely agitating to watch for Hawkeye fans but he did find a way to win games. And though he lacked touchdowns in 2010, he was one of the most efficient passers in the country. Obviously, KC is looking for a backup as Matt Cassel seems to have a strong hold on the starting job for the foreseeable future. I think this is a good role for Stanzi to take, especially since the competition is quite thin (Brodie Croyle and Tyler Palko(?)). If he can gain some confidence, learn the playbook, and do the little things, he will be prepared for success if injuries should befall Cassel. I think Stanzi could be a sufficient NFL backup for just about any franchise.

T.J. Yates (152nd overall, Houston) - I've seen Yates play before but I don't know too much about his specific abilities. I feel like his name screams old southern money or is that just me? Looking up his place of birth confirms this (Marietta, Georgia) suspicion. He holds multiple passing records at North Carolina but does that really say much about him? I can't name another quarterback from North Carolina. Anyways, from what I remember he's a decent athlete with some mobility. His arm is solid and he has good size for a quarterback. Most of his skills scream NFL mediocrity to me though. Drafted in a situation similar to Stanzi's, the Texans are just looking for a backup for Matt "I rack up a lot of passing yards but I'm not all that impressive because I get to throw to Andre Johnson" Schaub. I don't foresee Yates being a long term NFL starter.

Nathan Enderle (160th overall, Chicago) - I've seen a few plays of Idaho-run offense with Enderle under center (thank you Boise for making me watch a few WAC games). He threw for over 3,000 yards last year but again, that was in a weak WAC conference. Chicago is looking for backup solutions, though since Jay Cutler is a wuss, a backup in Chicago might be much more likely to play then say a backup in Indianapolis. I foresee a future where we are talking about Nathan Enderle and saying, "How the heck did this guy from Idaho drafted 160th overall get 5 starts his rookie season?!?!" I mean when the other backups on your roster are guys from Idaho State (Matt Gutierrez, they can be potato buddies!!!!!) and Colorado State (Caleb Haine, who somehow saw action in the NFC Championship. Seriously you cannot make this stuff up.), and a 17 year NFL veteran (a Todd Collins who may bare a slight resemblance to the Crypt Keeper) you actually might have a chance to win the backup job. Have we ever seen a team with three backups who are from the Mountain West, WAC, and Big Sky (a I-AA conference in football)? For a team who's quarterback goes down with a broken nail, they certainly don't have much security on the bench do they?

Tyrod Taylor (180th overall, Baltimore) - This is one of the most interesting draft contrasts I've seen in recent years. Taylor is an explosive athlete and not your average run-of-the-mill conservative pocket passer that the Ravens have employed in recent years. Baltimore has been a run-first team for a long time. And that won't change anytime soon with Harbaugh at the helm. So Taylor finds himself in an interesting situation. Maybe the Ravens will utilize him in a Brad Smith type role and open their playbook for the first time since the franchise moved to Baltimore? Who knows but personally I'm very interested to see what happens. I think Taylor could be solid in the NFL if used correctly. He has a lot of experience and has shown a lot of football intelligence. Personally, I'm looking forward to watching this situation develop.

Greg McElroy (208th overall, New York Jets) -Probably one of the smartest quarterbacks to come out of the draft in the long time, McElroy has proven himself a winner with a BCS Championship to his name. He knows how to lead an offense by avoiding big mistakes and properly utilizing the talent around him to his advantage. While you might say it was easy for him to win with the likes of Ingram and Richardson in the backfield, he played in college football's best conference with a lot of poise and success. I think he's similar to the quarterback he'll be backing up, Mark Sanchez. No cannon arm, but decent mobility and a bit of grit about him that might make him a valuable backup. He got drafted into the perfect franchise for his abilities and type of play.

Though we don't have any kind of sample size of professional experience for this draft class, I think it might be a bit deeper than 2010's. I think Newton, Ponder, Dalton, Gabbert, and Locker could all have some success in the NFL as starters. Whereas last year's class might have the best quarterback out of the two in Bradford, it struggled to produce multiple long-term starting options for NFL teams. We'll get more specific in Part 3.

The NFL's Quarterback Future: Part 1

**Warning: This post is long. As in the Great Wall of China IS long or Jason Kidd IS old or Blake Lively IS attractive or Elijah Dukes IS a thug.**

Due to the evolution of the sport and the NFL itself, the most important position on a roster to fill, with no question in anyone's mind who has any remote knowledge of the sport, is the quarterback. By my count, in the last 15 years, only twice (and both times the teams' defenses were other-worldly) has a quarterback of mediocre skill level held Lombardi's trophy: Trent Dilfer with the Ravens in 2001 and Brad Johnson with the Buccaneers in 2003. Quarterbacks get paid ridiculous amounts of money to sling the ball down the field in complex offensive systems to ensure a machine-esque offense to attempt to conquer their respective division and attempt a run at the Super Bowl. To further emphasize the importance of the quarterback, blind side tackles are getting paid incredibly lucrative sums to protect the most important asset of the team from concussions and other injuries.

The NFL is, without a doubt, a quarterback's world. Who says they're going to Disney World when they win the Super Bowl? No, its not Darren Sharper on the Saints, its Drew Brees. You think Greg Jennings had a date with Minnie Mouse? Wrong sir. Aaron Rodgers was obviously the one headed to Walt's world of wonderment.

Now that we've established the painfully obvious, (Right now you are either nodding your head up and down or have just decided to leave the page before finishing reading this post because you are sick of reading things you already know.) let us delve into the slightly less known area of quarterbacks of the future. And by future I mean let's look at the quarterbacks drafted in the last two drafts (2010 and 2011) and figure what they heck they are capable of in the league. Half of these players have already seen action in mini-camps, preseason games, and, for a lucky few, actual NFL games. Some haven't even really talked to their coaches legally. Trust me, they've talked to their coaches but the legality of such an event is questionable due to the lockout.

It's A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad Draft

ESPN. The world wide leader in sports. Innovative beyond belief. Pioneers of the way sports and society interact. My favorite channel on TV. The creators of SportsCenter, the only show people will watch the same episode of over and over and over... And last but not least, the channel exclusively featuring only topics related to and concerning the NFL Draft.

On Thursday, amidst a very sticky and seemingly irreparable labor dispute, the 2011 NFL draft began at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. As boos showered down upon Commissioner Goodell, the event which ESPN had been meticulously covering since Mr. Irrelevant was drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft, had finally begun. The hundreds of hours spent analyzing players and their abilities had finally come to fruition. All the sweat, tears, and blood of dozens of collegiate athletes, and in Mel Kiper Jr's case, gallons of hair gel, had all been pointing to this day. The commercials, the 10-minute-long segments on SportsCenter, the constant interviews with Kiper and Todd McShay. They all were pieces of a puzzle that had finally been put together. But the puzzle had sadly become a 5000 piece jigsaw extravaganza.

I don't think there's a single event in American sports which does not involve actual competition that gets this much coverage. I say American sports because the draw for the World Cup is probably the most important sporting event that doesn't involve actual competition. However, we live in the USA and people don't realize (or care about) the importance of the draw. Anyways, that is not the discussion of this post. I just find it incredible that there is so much hype, advertising, and promotion of this event. It has become obnoxious and suffocating.

I understand. The NFL is currently recognized as the most popular professional sports league in our grand country. The sports masses have a addiction and there's only one cure.... more football. So transitively, the NFL Draft would of course become extremely popular. But still, I see Kiper and McShay on SportsCenter in May of 2010 projecting for the 2011 Draft. Once the Super Bowl is over, the reporting goes into overdrive, being rivaled in a historical context only by the media's coverage of the OJ Simpson trial and Michael Jackson's death. Obviously people need their NFL crack when the actual season is over. I get that. The addiction is hard to shake. But really EPSN? Every other commercial has to advertise the draft? I know the draft is on ESPN. Where the hell else would it be? I know that my team's future could be either built or destroyed. I don't need to be reminded every five minutes. Really? The Packers built their Super Bowl championship team through the draft? I thought they did so by importing small Japanese refugees and forcing them to train night in and night out to become football machines.

Listen, I love ESPN. I spend about 70% my internet time on ESPN.com. I spend about 60% of my TV viewing time on ESPN (acccording to Elias Sports Bureau). But its the Entertainment Sports Programming Network, not the NFL Draft Programming Network. While some coverage of the Draft is necessary and enjoyable, I think they've gotten a bit excessive in the past few years. The Draft Day coverage is nauseating. I almost lost my dinner listening to Chris Berman and the other pundits dissect each pick. And I didn't even eat a dinner. Gruden praises each draftee like they're the next (insert elite hall of famer of a given position here). And he has this stupid "Quarterback Camp" now that is the most obnoxious hour of sports television since the second time the World Series of Poker had an hour long segment. They need to tone it down. ESPN has become fatten from Draft gluttony. They're like the guy in Se7en who died from eating too much.

The solution is simple. Cover the draft in moderation. Give Kiper and McShay some time but only ten minutes on the second Thursday of every month, starting 3 months before the draft. Supplement the new massive quantities of open airtime with other sports. Get some variety going. Acknowledge hockey for once. Attempt to get people interested in soccer. Explain the rules of cricket. Make the sporting populous an educated one.

The NFL now dominates the American sporting landscape, but with the lockout looming like Edgar Allen Poe's Raven, we need to step back and take a moment to rethink the Draft obsession. ESPN has led the way. Their influence on the minds of American sports fans is unparalleled. They need to take an active role in toning the coverage down. For the sake of the other sports, which need our attention and demand our respect. The Draft is great but not the only thing happening in sports during a busy spring sports season. To paraphrase Scripture, "Man can not live on Draft alone."

Unless, of course, its Budweiser.