As I stated earlier, the third part of our look at the QB Draft Classes of 2010 and 2011 will be composed of a ranking according to who I think will have the best CAREER as an NFL Quarterback. Besides the obvious component of talent, I'm considering the situation they find themselves in with their current team because that can often dictate the beginning of a quarterback's career, which in turn can significantly effect the overall path of the player's journey.
Keep in mind that there has really only been a small sample size of experience for the 2010 Draft Class and zero experience for the 2011 Class. Also factor in the 2011 Class could be significantly impacted by the lockout and the influence it has on them could effect the rest of their careers.
1. Sam Bradford (Rams, 2010) - Bradford immediately vindicated himself and the hype surrounding him by taking a 1-15 team to 7-9 with little help from a battered, scrappy receiving core. His accuracy is unreal for someone as young as he is, he is generally a great decision maker, and has the perfect balance between feeling the pocket and being able to throw on the run. People are talking up the possibility of a Hall of Fame career and, for once, I'm not doubting them anymore.
2. Jake Locker (Titans, 2011) - I'm going out on a limb here but I think that Locker has inherited a pretty favorable situation in which to start his career, get used to the speed and size of the NFL and take that knowledge and use it to become a very good starting quarterback. While some question his accuracy, his college numbers may have been effected by the multiple injuries he sustained trying to single-handedly carry a pretty weak Washington squad. If Chris Johnson sticks around, the Titans defense is its usual solid self, and the new coaching regime can tutor Locker, I think he becomes a very good NFL quarterback.
3. Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars, 2011) - I originally doubted Gabbert's ability to be a successful passer in an NFL scheme but I am beginning to be convinced that he has the talent and the mental abilities to become a good, if not great, NFL QB. His size is extremely favorable. His arm is cannon-like. And he knows how to win games (like '06 Homecoming versus the hated Parkway Central Colts). I foresee Gabbert waiting a few years to start, unless the coaching staff believes in trail-by-fire and David Gerrard begins to play really poorly. If he gets to learn the NFL game and doesn't have to see continual action right away, it could be a huge advantage in the long run.
4. Ryan Mallett (Patriots, 2011) - Even though I hate them, I have to give respect to the Patriots. They are a well-run franchise that knows how to draft players, develop them properly, and make the most of what they are given. This, along with Mallett's size and arm strength, are the reason I have put him so high on this list. Obviously, he's going to have to wait his turn to start, as HOFer Tom Brady begins to wind down his career. But, once again, this could be incredibly advantageous. With the tutelage of Tom Brady, the genius of Belichick, and the solid Pats D, Mallett could find himself in an enviable situation when he is finally given the reigns of this team.
5. Cam Newton (Panthers, 2011) - Personally, I don't have much faith in the kind of college quarterback Cam Newton was transferring to extreme success in the NFL. While he is a freak athlete, that doesn't always make you a great quarterback. He's no Micheal Vick with his speed and he's no Josh Freeman with his arm. Plus, the Panthers have a lot of question marks on their roster and their offense was pretty atrocious last year. The situation isn't the best for the former Heisman winner and I don't see his style of play keeping him in the league too long either. Yet, the two classes are so weak overall that I could still see him being the 5th most successful. Yikes.
6. Andy Dalton (Bengals, 2011) - I wavered back and forth with Dalton. I wasn't sure if he had enough arm strength to be an NFL quarterback. But I think he will get some time on the bench to hone his skills before he truly has to step up and bring it. He is a very intelligent quarterback with enough mobility to avoid the quick NFL pass rush. Though the Bengals might have some receiving problems soon which might not bode well for a young quarterback. Since it seems Palmer is staying put for now, Dalton may have time to learn enough to be successful when he actually sees the field.
7. Colt McCoy (Browns, 2010) - Colt got 1st year experience behind center and had a few bright spots for a Cleveland team that some people think might be turning a corner. Handing off to Peyton Hillis is going to help out McCoy by taking pressure of him to make throws on first down. I see McCoy possibly becoming the next Drew Brees. Undersized and no one really thinking he can make it in the NFL but going out there and doing it anyway. The reason I have him 7th is because he plays for a cursed franchise. Or, to be more accurate, a cursed city.
8. Christian Ponder (Vikings, 2011) - I see Ponder as very similar to Locker. Good athletes with questionable accuracy who can both hand off to good running backs. However, the Vikings roster is on its way to having a lot of gaping holes which will not aid the development of a young quarterback. Also, it is almost certain that whenever this season gets underway, Ponder will be under center. Unless the Vikes protect their first round pick by starting Patrick Ramsey, Joe Webb, or Tavaris Jackson for a while. But the fans can probably only take so much of the misery of watching any of those three. When Ponder does start, he has two solid backs in the back field in Petersen and Gerhart, which may help in becoming comfortable on an NFL field.
9. Tim Tebow (Broncos, 2010) - While his future is still completely up in the air and no one knows who's going to be start for the Broncos when we have football again, I think Tebow will still find a decent amount of success in the NFL, whether it be as a gadget player or a full-time quarterback. While his arm and release get questioned delay, he still finds ways to be successful. In the three games he starting in 2010, his accuracy was pretty bad, but it was his first year. Not everyone can be Sam Bradford. The first year experience he gained will help him in the future whether it be with the Broncos or another franchise.
10. Colin Kaepernick (49ers, 2011) - I make this pick solely because I believe that if Kaepernick doesn't make it as a quarterback, he could become the next Brad Smith in the NFL. While that requires finding the right team who appreciates his skill set, it may not be his final destiny. There are a lot of weapons to be utilized on the 49ers offense and if he can wrestle the job away from the mediocre group of quarterbacks on their roster, he might become quite successful. Honestly, he might be the most capable of having immediate success in the league (out of the 2011 Class) because of the strong players at skill positions for San Fran and the weakiocre (yes, a mix of the words weak and mediocre) NFC West.
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