Beware of the Brew Crew

Tell me if you've heard this before:

"The Reds are going to win the National League Central."
"The Reds have great young pitching. All of their starting pitchers are quality."
"The Reds have the best lineup in the league. Every position in their order can hit for power and there is speed everywhere."
"The Reds blah, blah, blah, they're better than the Cardinals and any other team in the Central and will walk away with the division."


After the first almost two months of the 2011 baseball season, I think a few comments are safe to make about the above statements I either read or heard during the off season. One, the Cardinals aren't going anywhere anytime soon. They have compiled a 30-21 record (as of May 26th) without their ace pitcher and with the most consistent hitter in the game going through a strange slump which includes him batting about 68 points below his career average and grounding into more double plays than the fat guy in that old school little league baseball game on the original Nintendo. Two, the Central division is, once again, relatively weak contray to those who thought the Pirates would be solid contenders. They just don't have the pitching yet. Combined them with the completely unwatchable Astros and the hapless Cubbies and the lower tier of the division rivals the NFC West in disgrace to the sport factor. Three, this division isn't going to be a two horse race. I've said it since they acquired two good pitchers in the off season and I'll say it again: the Brewers are going to be at or near the top of the division come September and the Cardinals and Reds better be on high alert.

That's right Cardinals fans (and I guess Reds fans, though I don't think any Reds fans have been reading this), you better beware of the Brewers. They have won 6 games in a row, taken 2nd place from the struggling Reds, and have a healthy starting rotation. I've been telling my fellow co-writer/editor that the Brewers were going to be a factor in this race even before the season started because of the additions of Greinke and Marcum, both of whom were moving from the AL into arguably baseball's weakest division. And while Greinke really only has one year of stellar pitching on his resume, I don't think many people doubt he has the goods to be a highly successful major league pitcher. Shaun Marcum, who was stuck in the pitcher's worst friend, the AL East, for the first part of his career, finds himself in an extremely favorable situation as reflected by his current stat line: 2.37 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6-1 record, and a 4.13 K/BB ratio. Meanwhile, the assumed ace of the staff going into the season, Yovani Gallardo, is finally finding his groove after a rough start, posting a 4-0 record with 29 Ks, 1.66 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP in his last four starts. The front three of that rotation would eat up any lineup during a three-game series.


The biggest threat right now to the Brewers being a serious competitor come September might be their inability to win on the road. With a 8-17 road record in the first two months of the season, doubters could certainly point to this stat and say with confidence Milwaukee won't be there when all the chips are on the table. However, I think they have the pitching and the offense to compete with the Reds and the Cardinals, regardless of their atrocious start away from Miller Park. Defense could be one of their major concerns but its currenlt hard to fault a team on defense when the Cardinals look like an 6th grade little league team every other game in the field and are still 9 games above .500.


The major reason I believe in the Brewers ability to compete for the season's entirety is because they have two established stars in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder (one of whom is playing for a contract), solid 2nd-tier contributors in Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart, an above average front-end of their rotation (as discussed earlier), and a respectable (though not perfect) closer in John Axford. These are all the components contenders USUALLY have and utilize to make a run at a divisional title.

Now, obviously, the Cardinals and Reds might have something to say about it. I merely wanted to point out that this is no longer a Cold War of two superpowers (a la the USA and the USSR). The NL Central has become a three-headed hydra headed for possible self-destruction. Head-to-head games will play a key part in the deciding of the divisional champion. And as we saw last year, the ability to destroy the weaker teams in the division may be the most important part to the championship equation of all. And though I honestly can say I know somewhere in between very little to nothing about Brewer's manager Ron Roenicke, I can safely say I trust him over Dusty Baker. And this is where Cardinals fans may find the most hope. The massive strategical advantage they have in the dugout with Tony LaRussa at the helm.

If the race comes down to the last few weeks, the managerial advantage will become most evident. If this is the case, barring any major injuries, I foresee the Cardinals winning the division. However, there are still a lot of games to be played between now and then. I just wanted to give a heads up to Reds and Cardinals fans alike.

Watch out for those beer-loving Wisconsonites and their hops happy franchise, because Miller isn't the only thing that's brewing in Miller Park these days. A divisional race is as well.